Communications of the ACM
What Jobs Will the Robots Take?
Asimo robot as barista.
Credit: Reuters
Nearly half of American jobs today could be automated in within two decades, according to new research, and that's leading to some serious thinking about the role of computerization, automation, artificial intelligence, and robotics on the future of IT jobs. Over the past 30 years, software and robots have thrived at replacing a particular kind of occupation: the average-wage, middle-skill worker, especially in manufacturing and office administration. Indeed, experts now predict that the next wave of computer progress will continue to reduce the need for human workers in manufacturing, administrative support, retail, and transportation. In fact, there is now a growing list of jobs with a 99% likelihood of being replaced by machines and software within the next two decades.
Predicting the future typically means extrapolating the past. It often fails to anticipate breakthroughs. But it's precisely those unpredictable breakthroughs in computing that could have the biggest impact on the workforce. For example, imagine somebody in 2004 forecasting the next ten years in mobile technology. Breakthroughs can be fast. We might be on the edge of a breakthrough moment in robotics and artificial intelligence. Although the past 30 years have hollowed out the middle-skilled workforce, high-, and low-skill jobs have actually increased, as if protected from the invading armies of robots by their own moats. Higher-skill workers have been protected by a kind of social-intelligence moat. Computers are historically good at executing routines, but they're bad at finding patterns, communicating with people, and making decisions. Meanwhile, lower-skill workers have been protected by a moat of their own: machines could do long math equations instantly and beat anybody in chess, but they can't answer a simple question or walk up a flight of stairs. As a result, menial work done by people without much education have been spared, too.
From The Atlantic
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