Communications of the ACM
New Statistical Model Lets Patient's Past Forecast Future Ailments
University of Washington professor Tyler McCormick
Credit: University of Washington
University of Washington researchers have developed an algorithm that makes predictions based on what a patient has already experienced as well as the experiences of other patients showing a similar medical history, through analysis of medical records from thousands of patients.
"This provides physicians with insights on what might be coming next for a patient, based on experiences of other patients," says Washington professor Tyler McCormick.
What differentiates the model from others is that it shares information across patients who have similar health problems, which allows for better predictions when details of a patient's medical history are hard to come by, according to McCormick. The new algorithm can compare a patient's health problems with other patients who have a more extensive medical record that includes similar symptoms.
"We're looking at each sequence of symptoms to try to predict the rest of the sequence for a different patient," McCormick says. The researchers used medical records taken from a multiyear clinical drug trial involving tens of thousands of patients aged 40 and older.
"We hope that this model will provide a more patient-centered approach to medical care and to improve patient experiences," McCormick says.
From University of Washington
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