Communications of the ACM
Forget Movie Critics, Mindless Internet Chatter Predicts Blockbusters and Bombs
Credit: Twitter
Japanese physicists have developed a model that strongly reflects the box office performance of movies based on the number of times a film is mentioned in blog posts and social media.
A team led by Tottori University's Akira Ishii plotted the number of times select movies were mentioned in blogs and on Facebook several weeks ahead of their release until the end of the first run, which could be weeks or months later. They found that social media mentions peaked on opening day and then gradually declined with spikes on weekends. The researchers also used daily advertising spending data and say the model "can predict the [daily] revenue of the corresponding movie very well."
Ishii notes the model is the first to incorporate indirect communications, or when someone views a Web page without commenting on it. Such page views are comparable to overhearing a conversation in a cafe, according to Ishii. "Indirect communications are very important in explaining real market observations," he says.
The also model can be applied to online music sales, other consumer purchases, and elections, Ishii points out.
From ScienceNOW
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