Communications of the ACM
The Job Market of 2045
Credit: IEEE Spectrum
Rice University professor Moshe Vardi predicts that by 2045 artificial intelligence (AI) will have progressed to a point that machines will be able to perform a significant percentage of human work. He projects ever-growing levels of robotic automation in the manufacturing industry, both in developed and developing countries. He also expects the complete automation of driving within another generation, while automated checkouts and even automated shelf-loading will be commonplace. On the other hand, Vardi does not think sales jobs, especially those involving human-to-human contact, will become roboticized anytime soon.
Still, Vardi is unsettled by his observation that "we seem to be blindly developing the technology without worrying about the consequences." He makes a case for technological regulation, noting that "we adopt technology, we discover the consequences later, and at that point it's very often too late to get off the technology."
Vardi thinks the issue of AI and jobs merits serious discussion, not just by economists, but also by technology producers. "We need to start thinking, as we're producing technology, about using human technology, and to think about the consequence of technology, and maybe who has a role in producing technologies that will mitigate its impact," he says.
From IEEE Spectrum
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