Communications of the ACM
It’s in the Algorithm: Tight Races in Major League Baseball Chase This Year
Researchers at the New Jersey Institute of Technology used mathematical analysis to forecast how many regular season games each Major League Baseball team will win this year.
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New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT) researchers have used a mathematical analysis to compute the number of regular season games each Major League Baseball team should win in 2013. The model predicts the probability of a team with given hitters, bench, starting pitchers, lineup, relievers, and home field advantage winning a game against another team.
"The numbers indicate that only one game might separate the first and second place teams in both the National League's East and West divisions, with the Atlanta Braves (94 wins) edging out the Washington Nationals (93 wins) in the East and the Los Angeles Dodgers (88 wins) coming in just ahead of the San Francisco Giants (87 wins) in the West," says NJIT professor Bruce Bukiet.
The American League also should have some tight playoff races. "While the Detroit Tigers should have the best record in baseball (102 wins) and run away with the Central division, with the next best team (the Chicago White Sox) more than 20 wins behind, the other two divisions could end up in ties," Bukiet says. Last season, Bukiet's model picked six of the 10 post-season teams.
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