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Moore's Law Dead by 2022, Expert Says
The director of the microsystems group of the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency predicts Moore's Law will come to an end over the next seven years at the seven-nanometer node.
Credit: Marcin Wichary
Moore's Law will come to an end as soon as 2020 at the seven-nanometer node, according to Robert Colwell, director of the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) microsystems group.
The predictions of Moore's Law's limits are increasing as lithography advances stall and process technology approaches atomic limits. Over 30 years, Moore's Law has guided a 3,500-fold increase in microchip speed. "I don't expect to see another 3,500x increase in electronics--maybe 50x in the next 30 years," Colwell says.
DARPA tracks a list of up to 30 possible alternatives to the complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) technology that has been the backbone of Moore's Law. "My personal take is there are two or three promising ones and they are not very promising," Colwell says.
One new approach explores approximate computing with a program called Upside, while another looks at the effects of spin-torque oscillators to settle on partial solutions at relatively low power.
"When Moore's Law stops it will be economics that stops it, not physics, so keep your eye on the money," Colwell says.
From EE Times
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