Communications of the ACM
Model Predicts Growth, Death of Facebook and Other Membership-Based Websites
Credit: Tiempo
Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) researchers have developed a computational model to assess the viability of websites and social networks and predict which sites are sustainable and which are not. The model aims to replicate the dynamics of membership sites such as Facebook, LinkedIn, and TeaPartyNation, including the role of active users as catalysts of site activity, turning dormant site members into active users, and keeping them active. The researchers say the model was able to reliably predict which sites will be sustainable for the foreseeable future.
The model could help investors understand which sites are self-sustaining and which are likely to fail, as well as help website managers identify and correct problems in the dynamics of attention to their sites, according to CMU researcher Bruno Ribeiro. The model also accounts for several other factors, including the tendency of active members to become inactive, the influence that active members can have in encouraging friends to join or become active members, and the role of marketing and media campaigns in convincing people to join.
"If this model is correct, social network sites will try to make your friends' lives seem more interesting and your feedback on their posts more urgent," Ribeiro says.
From Carnegie Mellon University
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Abstracts Copyright © 2014 Information Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA
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