Communications of the ACM
New Framework ses Patterns to Predict Terrorist Behavior
A new framework developed by researchers at Binghamton University is able to predict future terrorist attacks by recognizing patterns in past attacks.
Credit: NeuroscienceNews.com
Binghamton University researchers have developed a framework that can predict future terrorist attacks by recognizing patterns in past attacks.
The researchers used data on more than 140,000 terrorist attacks between 1970 and 2014 to develop the framework, which calculates the relationship between specific features of terrorist attacks, such as attack time and weapon type. The framework identifies the characteristics of future terrorist attacks by analyzing the relationship between past attacks.
The proposed method was able to successfully predict most of the characteristics of attacks with more than 90% accuracy, according to the researchers. The results support previous findings that terrorists tend to mimic the behavior of other terrorist groups and learn from their mistakes and successes.
The framework works to define which metrics are important, according to Binghamton University researcher Salih Tutun. He says policymakers could use this approach for time-sensitive understanding and detection of terrorist activity, which can enable precautions to protect against future attacks.
"Predicting terrorist events is a dream, but protecting some area by using patterns is a reality," Tutun says. "If you know the patterns, you can reduce the risks. It's not about predicting, it's about understanding."
From Binghamton University
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