Communications of the ACM
Autonomous Vehicles' Future May Be Further Away, Different Than Imagined
Experts think autonomous vehicles (AVs) may arrive later than expected, or in a different form than most people anticipate.
Proterra CEO Ryan Popple and Lyft's Debs Schrimmer concur that AV adoption growth, although likely rapid, will be mainly concentrated in the fleet vehicle industry, as opposed to individual owners. Popple says the largest challenge is ensuring the technology serves all aspects of the market equally. "You'll need a vehicle in your fleet, in your arsenal, that can handle diversity of mission if you're going to accommodate everyone," he says.
Meanwhile, Schrimmer notes Lyft has teamed with Drive.ai to develop a "brain" for Lyft's AVs, with a pilot planned for year's end.
On the other hand, Ben McKeever with the University of California, Berkeley's Partners for Advanced Transportation Technology says it will be at least 20 years "before we see anything close to a full rollout deployment of AV that are self-driving."
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