Communications of the ACM
New Method Developed for Modeling COVID Spread
Evidence shows that lockdowns are effective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19, althrough they come at a high economic cost, and not everybody follows government guidance on lockdowns.
Credit: NDTV (India)
Researchers at Warwick University in the U.K. developed a method for modeling the spread of COVID-19 that could help establish optimal lockdown policies.
The researchers used approximate Bayesian computation to create mathematical models that simulate the virus' spread in England and France.
The models factor in public health data and mobility data captured by Google via Android smartphones.
The models, which can be updated in real time and adapted to other countries with available public health and Google mobility data, demonstrated that effective lockdown strategies that account for public health and economic costs while allowing partial reopening of workplaces and schools are possible.
Warwick's Ritabrata Dutta said, "Our work opens the door to a larger integration between epidemiological models and real-world data to, through the use of supercomputers, determine best public policies to mitigate the effects of a pandemic."
From NDTV (India)
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