Communications of the ACM
How Do We Know How Smart AI Systems Are?
It is difficult to conclude from the evidence that AI systems, now or soon, will match or exceed human intelligence.
Credit: atriainnovation.com
In 1967, Marvin Minksy, a founder of the field of artificial intelligence (AI), made a bold prediction: "Within a generation…the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will be substantially solved." Assuming that a generation is about 30 years, Minsky was clearly overoptimistic. But now, nearly two generations later, how close are we to the original goal of human-level (or greater) intelligence in machines?
Some leading AI researchers would answer that we are quite close. Earlier this year, deep-learning pioneer and Turing Award winner Geoffrey Hinton told Technology Review, "I have suddenly switched my views on whether these things are going to be more intelligent than us. I think they're very close to it now and they will be much more intelligent than us in the future." His fellow Turing Award winner Yoshua Bengio voiced a similar opinion in a recent blog post: "The recent advances suggest that even the future where we know how to build superintelligent AIs (smarter than humans across the board) is closer than most people expected just a year ago."
From Science
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